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  • 🌱 Will Kabul Be the First Major City to Run Out of Water? ⏳🚰

🌱 Will Kabul Be the First Major City to Run Out of Water? ⏳🚰

Kabul may become the first major city to run out of water by 2030. Explore the causes behind this crisis—from climate change to poor governance—and discover what can still be done to avert catastrophe.

As the world’s attention is captured by rising seas and wildfires, another slow-burning crisis threatens to make history: Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, could become the first major city to completely run out of water — and it could happen as early as 2030. With a population exceeding six million and growing, Kabul is grappling with a devastating mix of climate change, over-extraction, poor governance, and geopolitical isolation. The city’s water taps are drying up, and so is the hope of millions.

Table of Contents

The Depth of the Crisis

According to a 2025 report by the humanitarian organization Mercy Corps, groundwater levels in Kabul have dropped by 25–30 meters (82–98 feet) in the last decade. Water extraction exceeds natural replenishment by 44 million cubic meters annually, signaling an imminent collapse of the aquifer system that supplies most of the city’s drinking water.

Nearly half of Kabul’s borewells are already dry, and those that still function are producing water at diminished efficiency. Alarmingly, up to 80% of Kabul’s groundwater is contaminated, tainted by sewage, salinity, and arsenic, rendering it unsafe for consumption.

Why Is This Happening?

1. Climate Change

Kabul’s water table relies on rivers and snowmelt from the Hindu Kush mountains. However, Afghanistan has suffered repeated droughts, early snowmelt, and reduced snowfall in recent years. Between October 2023 and January 2024, the country received only 45–60% of average winter precipitation.

Warmer temperatures have also increased evaporation and water demand, particularly for agriculture, compounding the crisis.

2. Overpopulation and Over-extraction

Kabul’s population surged from under a million in 2001 to over six million today, largely due to migration from war-torn provinces. This growth was unsupported by adequate infrastructure. The city now has around 310,000 drilled wells and an estimated 120,000 unregulated borewells. As groundwater levels fall, residents drill deeper wells — a short-term fix that worsens long-term depletion.

3. Private Sector Pressure

Over 500 beverage and bottled water companies, including major players like Alokozay, are extracting millions of liters daily from Kabul’s aquifers. One estimate suggests Alokozay alone withdraws 2.5 million liters per day.

Additionally, greenhouses across the city consume about 4 billion liters of water annually, further stressing the system.

4. Governance and Geopolitical Instability

Following decades of conflict and the return of the Taliban in 2021, Afghanistan’s access to international aid and development projects has been severely restricted due to Western sanctions. These sanctions have frozen vital infrastructure projects, including:

  • A German-funded water supply project from Logar aquifers, which was 66% complete

  • The India-backed Shah-toot Dam, intended to supply water to Kabul

With no international support and a de facto government lacking technical capacity, essential maintenance — like cleaning canals, repairing pipelines, and building dams — has been neglected.

The Human Toll

The water crisis in Kabul is not just a technical issue — it is a human tragedy unfolding in slow motion.

Wealthier households can afford deeper boreholes and bottled water. Meanwhile, poorer families rely on shallow wells, many of which have dried up. Children — especially girls — often spend their days searching for water instead of attending school.

“Every evening, I see children with cans in their hands looking for water… They look hopeless,” said Abdulhadi Achakzai, director of a Kabul-based environmental NGO.

This crisis may soon force up to three million residents to abandon the city, leading to mass displacement, regional instability, and heightened humanitarian needs.

Is There Any Hope?

Experts say solutions exist — but they require immediate and coordinated action:

 Infrastructure Investment

  • Renew and expand water pipelines

  • Introduce citywide water supply networks from nearby rivers

  • Rehabilitate existing dams and reservoirs

Artificial Groundwater Recharge

  • Build check dams, rainwater harvesting systems, and water retention basins

  • Restore riverbeds to improve natural aquifer replenishment

Policy and Governance Reform

  • Regulate private water extraction, especially commercial operators

  • Develop a comprehensive urban water management plan

International Engagement

  • Create humanitarian exceptions to sanctions to allow water-related development aid

  • Resume stalled projects like Shah-toot Dam and the Logar pipeline initiative

But time is running out.

A Global Warning

Kabul’s water crisis isn’t unique. Cities like Cape Town, Chennai, and São Paulo have already come close to "Day Zero" scenarios. But Kabul could be the first to go over the edge — a haunting milestone in the age of climate change.

And if the world ignores Kabul today, other cities may follow tomorrow.

Conclusion

Will Kabul be the first major city to run out of water? The answer depends not only on what Afghans do next — but on whether the global community sees this as their problem too.

FAQs

Why is Kabul running out of water?

Kabul is facing severe groundwater depletion due to over-extraction, rapid population growth, unregulated private wells, climate change, and the lack of functional water infrastructure. Years of conflict and sanctions have further stalled development and aid.

How soon could Kabul run out of water?

According to a 2025 report by Mercy Corps, Kabul’s aquifers could be completely depleted by 2030 if current trends continue. Nearly half of the city’s wells are already dry.

What is the human impact of the water crisis in Kabul?

Poor residents, especially children, are most affected. Many families lack access to clean water, and children are often tasked with fetching water instead of attending school. Wealthier households can afford deeper wells or bottled water, worsening inequality.

What are the main causes of Kabul’s water crisis?

The crisis is driven by:

  • Climate change (droughts, reduced snowfall, early snowmelt)

  • Overpopulation and unregulated water extraction

  • Commercial overuse by beverage companies and agriculture

  • Weak governance and stalled infrastructure projects due to sanctions and political instability

Is anything being done to solve the problem?

Some projects were underway, like the Shah-toot Dam and a German-funded water supply from Logar aquifers, but many were suspended after the Taliban's return to power in 2021. Experts advocate for artificial groundwater recharge, regulation of private wells, and international cooperation.

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