• Green Glow
  • Posts
  • 🌱 What a Trump Presidency Means for Global Climate Action: Insights from Climate Experts 🌎📉

🌱 What a Trump Presidency Means for Global Climate Action: Insights from Climate Experts 🌎📉

Explore expert insights on what a Trump presidency means for global climate action. From potential rollbacks on U.S. climate policies to shifts in international leadership, discover how the world plans to adapt and keep progress alive.

Author

Green Glow
November 14, 2024

The re-election of Donald Trump as the U.S. president has reignited concerns over the global climate crisis. His past policies favored fossil fuel development, downplayed environmental concerns, and withdrew the United States from international climate agreements. As his administration signals a similar direction this time, climate experts are weighing in on the potential consequences. Here’s a look at what a Trump presidency might mean for global climate action, and how the world could respond.

Table of Contents

1. Revisiting the Rollback: Trump’s Stance on Climate Policy

Trump’s first term saw the dismantling of key environmental protections, from the Clean Power Plan to vehicle emissions standards. His administration’s policies were built around "energy dominance," promoting coal, oil, and gas while minimizing regulations. Trump also withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, weakening global efforts to keep warming below critical thresholds. Many experts fear a continuation of these policies, with promises to pull back on funding for climate-friendly initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act, which has supported renewable energy development.

Jason Bordoff, Founding Director at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, highlights the risks to climate legislation, particularly the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Bordoff warns that rolling back the IRA could have substantial impacts, especially on clean energy investments and electric vehicle incentives, potentially reversing progress made during the Biden administration.

2. Implications for the Paris Agreement and Global Climate Leadership

The potential withdrawal from not only the Paris Agreement but also the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) could further isolate the U.S. from international climate efforts. Trump's stance casts doubt on U.S. involvement in future COP conferences, which serve as vital forums for global climate cooperation. Without U.S. leadership, experts worry about a leadership vacuum on the world stage.

Li Shuo from the Asia Society Policy Institute notes that other countries will need to fill the gap in global climate leadership if the U.S. steps back. The EU and China are likely to step up, reaffirming their commitments to the Paris Agreement. However, there is concern that without the U.S., the momentum for climate action may falter.

3. Economic and Technological Impact on Clean Energy

Trump’s rhetoric on climate policy has centered on promoting fossil fuels while dismissing green energy initiatives. However, the economic case for renewable energy has never been stronger. Advances in solar, wind, and battery storage have driven costs down, making clean energy more competitive. In fact, many U.S. states and private companies are committed to renewable energy, regardless of federal policy.

Camilla Born, Independent Climate Advisor, suggests that economic motivations for clean energy might buffer against federal rollbacks. She points out that clean energy is increasingly recognized for its job creation and economic stability, factors that make it appealing even in traditionally conservative states.

4. Challenges for Climate Action in Developing Nations

While the Trump administration may attempt to sideline climate discussions, other regions, particularly Africa, have the potential to take a leading role in clean energy development. With its vast renewable energy potential, Africa could demonstrate the viability of decoupling economic development from fossil fuels. This could set an example globally and make a case for international investment in clean energy for developing nations.

Mo Adow, Director of Power Shift Africa, emphasizes that Africa’s potential in renewable energy positions it as a climate leader. Adow believes that Africa’s vulnerability to climate change coupled with renewable energy resources presents an opportunity for the continent to lead in resilience and clean energy.

5. The Climate Movement’s Resilience: A Force Unwavering

While Trump’s policies may challenge national climate progress, sub-national actors—states, cities, and businesses—have already signaled their continued commitment to reducing emissions. Organizations like the U.S. Climate Alliance, representing over two-thirds of the U.S. population, show that local efforts are unwavering. Similarly, international partnerships and pressure from other nations are expected to keep pushing forward.

Tasneem Essop, Executive Director of Climate Action Network International, argues that the climate movement is resilient and adaptive. Essop highlights that climate action continued during Trump’s first term, with cities, states, and businesses stepping up. The world, she says, is prepared to counter any obstruction from the federal level in the U.S.

6. Expert Consensus: Climate Science and Economic Reality Will Prevail

Despite the uncertainty posed by a second Trump presidency, experts agree that science and economic momentum are on the side of climate action. The harsh realities of climate change—extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and ecosystem collapse—are undeniable. The economic case for a low-carbon future, bolstered by job creation in renewables, further strengthens the movement for sustainable growth.

Joeri Rogelj, Director of Research at the Grantham Institute, argues that the physical realities of climate change cannot be ignored. Political decisions may create temporary setbacks, but the trajectory toward a cleaner economy is too strong to derail completely.

Conclusion

A Trump presidency represents a significant challenge for global climate efforts, but experts underscore the resilience and adaptability of the climate movement. While federal policy may shift, economic incentives for renewable energy and the growing impact of climate change will keep momentum alive. Countries, businesses, and sub-national governments are ready to fill any leadership gaps, underscoring the reality that climate action is a global, irreversible force.

In the words of Katharine Hayhoe, a prominent climate scientist, “every action matters.” The journey to a resilient, sustainable future may face headwinds, but it is powered by forces stronger than politics alone.

FAQs

How might a Trump presidency impact global climate action?

A Trump presidency could stall U.S. federal climate initiatives, impacting global climate efforts as the U.S. pulls back from international agreements like the Paris Agreement. However, sub-national actors and other countries are expected to continue their climate commitments.

Will the U.S. exit the Paris Agreement under Trump’s leadership again?

Yes, Trump has indicated plans to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, similar to his previous term. Experts warn this could weaken the momentum of global climate action, though many countries are prepared to step up.

How will states and businesses respond if federal climate policies are rolled back?

Many U.S. states, cities, and businesses remain committed to reducing emissions and investing in renewable energy. Organizations like the U.S. Climate Alliance are likely to continue their efforts regardless of federal policy changes.

Could a second Trump term derail progress on the Inflation Reduction Act?

Trump has signaled plans to defund the Inflation Reduction Act, potentially impacting investments in renewable energy and electric vehicles. However, bipartisan support for some aspects, like clean manufacturing, may preserve certain provisions.

You May Also Like

Sponsored Links