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🌱 South Africa’s Green Energy Gamble: Is the Shift from Coal on Track? ⚡🌍

South Africa’s transition from coal to renewable energy under the Just Energy Transition Partnership has received billions in funding—but is it on track? Explore the progress, challenges, and what’s at stake in this critical green energy shift.

Author

Green Glow
May 02, 2025

South Africa stands at a pivotal crossroads in its energy future. With more than 74% of its electricity still generated from coal, the country is under increasing international and domestic pressure to transition to cleaner, renewable sources. The launch of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) in 2021 was hailed as a landmark deal—a multi-billion-dollar pledge from wealthy nations to help South Africa decarbonize its power sector and build a green economy.

But four years later, the question remains: Is South Africa truly on track, or is this green energy gamble at risk of falling short?

Table of Contents

The Just Energy Transition Partnership: A Bold Promise

The JETP initially drew pledges of $8.5 billion (R157 billion) from Germany, the UK, France, the US, and the EU. By 2025, this figure had grown to $11.8 billion (R218 billion) with additional support from countries like Canada and Denmark. The plan wasn't just about shutting coal plants—it aimed to build a more inclusive, low-carbon economy through:

  • Renewable energy infrastructure

  • Skills development

  • Green hydrogen and electric vehicle industries

  • Economic diversification in coal-heavy provinces like Mpumalanga

However, the partnership faced a major setback in March 2025, when then-President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. share of $1.5 billion, citing domestic policy priorities.

What’s Working: Policy Reforms and Planning

Despite geopolitical hurdles, the South African government has made meaningful progress:

  • Legislative Reform: The Climate Change Act (2024) now mandates climate integration across all government departments.

  • Private Sector Participation: New regulations allow private entities to generate electricity without licensing, encouraging faster deployment of renewable projects.

  • Renewable Energy Masterplan: A national blueprint outlines how South Africa intends to build local renewable manufacturing industries and create jobs.

Funds are already being used for environmental impact studies, infrastructure upgrades, and municipal training. Approximately $583 million (R10.8 billion) has been allocated to real projects so far.

The Challenges: Power Cuts, Coal Dependence, and Inequality

1. Energy Insecurity

South Africa’s aging coal fleet continues to underperform, causing frequent power outages. With only 8.8% of electricity currently coming from renewables, the country has had to delay decommissioning three major coal plants until 2030, raising concerns over climate commitments.

2. Vulnerable Coal Communities

Regions like Mpumalanga, home to 12 coal mines, are particularly at risk. Without alternative industries and robust retraining programs, workers and communities could be left behind.

3. Social Inequality

South Africa faces deep socio-economic challenges—poverty, unemployment, and inequality—that complicate the transition. The energy shift must create decent work, not just clean energy.

4. Weak Local Governance

Municipalities play a key role in implementing renewable energy, yet many lack the capacity and infrastructure to do so. Aging power grids, limited funds, and bureaucratic inefficiencies continue to slow progress.

The Human Factor: Why People Must Be at the Center

Experts argue that for this transition to be truly “just,” it must be people-centered. That means:

  • Involving communities in planning

  • Supporting workers displaced by coal closures

  • Strengthening social safety nets (e.g., proposals for a universal basic income grant)

  • Ensuring equitable access to new economic opportunities

A transition that overlooks the social costs risks deepening the very inequalities it aims to address.

Outlook: On Track or Off Course?

The direction is promising, but the pace is uneven. The policy framework is sound, and some funding is flowing. Yet delays in coal plant closures, weak local execution, and socio-economic fragility threaten to derail progress.

Whether South Africa’s gamble on green energy pays off will depend on:

  • Strengthening state capacity

  • Accelerating grid readiness and renewables rollout

  • Honoring international funding commitments

  • Keeping vulnerable communities front and center

Conclusion

South Africa’s green energy transition is neither a failure nor a runaway success—it’s a complex, high-stakes project in motion. The country has laid essential groundwork, but without faster action, deeper inclusion, and more accountability, the vision of a just, sustainable energy future will remain elusive.

FAQs

What is the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP)?

The JETP is a multi-billion-dollar agreement between South Africa and several developed countries to support the country’s shift from coal to renewable energy. It focuses on clean energy infrastructure, job creation, and economic diversification in coal-dependent areas.

How much funding has been pledged for South Africa’s energy transition?

As of 2025, a total of $11.8 billion (R218 billion) has been pledged by countries including Germany, the UK, France, Canada, and the EU. The U.S. withdrew its $1.5 billion share in early 2025.

What has the funding been used for so far?

Funds have gone toward feasibility studies, upgrading the electricity grid, training municipalities, and supporting development projects in coal-reliant regions like Mpumalanga.

What are the main challenges facing the transition?

Key challenges include energy insecurity due to underperforming coal plants, insufficient renewable capacity, weak municipal implementation, and socio-economic issues like poverty and unemployment.

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